Nintendo has forecast 15 million gross sales for Nintendo Swap 2 throughout its launch window, which might make it one of many fastest-selling sport consoles ever.
In its forecast for the subsequent fiscal 12 months, ending March 2026, Nintendo predicts that it’s going to promote 15 million Swap 2 consoles and 45 million video games.
This is able to exceed the slightly below 15 million consoles offered by Swap in its first enterprise 12 months (and it launched earlier within the 12 months). PlayStation 4 and PlayStation 5 launched later within the 12 months, and offered round 7.5 million models every, with the latter struggling inventory points as a result of pandemic.
Many analysts anticipate Swap 2 to carry out much better in its launch window, particularly following robust pre-orders for the system, which prompted president Shuntaro Furukawa to warn of shortages.
One danger issue that has probably made Nintendo’s forecast extra conservative is US President Trump’s tariffs, which have already pressured it to lift some {hardware} costs, and will but goal international video video games.
In its outcomes for the 12 months ended March 2025, Nintendo reviews that it offered 10.8 million Nintendo Swap consoles, bringing its lifetime complete to 152.1 million – simply shy of its best-selling system ever, Nintendo DS (154m).
THE BEST-SELLING SWITCH GAMES
*As of March 31, 2025 (in comparison with December 2024)
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 68.20m (+0.85m)
- Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 47.82m (+0.38m)
- Tremendous Smash Bros. Final – 36.24m (+0.36m)
- Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 32.81m (+0.19m)
- Tremendous Mario Odyssey – 29.28m (+0.24m)
- Pokémon Scarlet & Violet – 26.79m (+0.43m)
- Pokemon Sword/Defend – 26.72m (+0.12m)
- Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom – 21.73m (+0.18m)
- Tremendous Mario Get together – 21.16m (+0.6m)
- New Tremendous Mario Bros. U Deluxe – 18.25 (+0.19m)
Nintendo expects to promote simply 4.5 million Swap consoles within the present fiscal 12 months, which might deliver Swap’s lifetime complete simply wanting the best-selling console ever, PlayStation 2 (160m).
Dr Serkan Toto, CEO of Tokyo-based sport trade consultancy Kantan Video games, instructed VGC he was unsurprised Nintendo’s forecasts had been lower than many analysts, contemplating the present local weather.
“The finance world at the very least is one quantity, and one quantity solely, at the moment: {hardware} gross sales forecast. In terms of forecasts, I’d not need to be in Nintendo’s sneakers now,” he stated.
“God is aware of how the tariff state of affairs will evolve even over the subsequent few days, so how is an organization alleged to predict gross sales for a whole 12 months?
“In the event you take a look at the forecasts made by analysts (together with yours really) the previous couple of weeks, Nintendo’s quantity is extra on the low aspect. With good cause: Nintendo has all the time been conservative with regards to making forecasts, and now actually is the worst time ever to alter this strategy.”
12 months-on-year, Swap {hardware} gross sales are down greater than 30%, and software program gross sales are down 22%. Nintendo says the earlier fiscal 12 months was “considerably” pushed by The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom and Tremendous Mario Bros. Marvel, however nonetheless views these gross sales as regular for a platform that has entered its ninth 12 months.
The corporate says its variety of annual taking part in customers stays above 100 million.
In software program for the complete fiscal 12 months (April 2024 via March 2025), Tremendous Mario Get together Jamboree offered 7.48 million models, The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Knowledge offered 4.09 million models, and Paper Mario: The Thousand-12 months Door offered 2.10 million models.
The overall variety of million-seller titles throughout this fiscal 12 months reached 24, together with titles from different software program publishers.
Trying forward, Nintendo plans to launch Pokémon Legends: Z-A for Swap in late 2025, and Metroid Prime 4: Past throughout 2025.
Nintendo Swap 2 will likely be launched on June 5, alongside Mario Kart World and Nintendo Swap 2 Welcome Tour, in addition to The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – Nintendo Swap 2 Version and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom – Nintendo Swap 2 Version.
Nathan Naidu, BI analyst, instructed Bloomberg: “Nintendo’s softer-than-expected fiscal 2026 gross sales and revenue steering vs. consensus is according to an traditionally conservative stance, which tariffs most likely justify. Constructive pre-order developments in Japan, the US and different key markets counsel the corporate may obtain the 15 million-unit gross sales aim earlier for its Swap 2 video-game console.
“The 45 million software-unit aim additionally appears beatable, with the robust lineup of third-party video games — together with Cyberpunk 2077 — and in-house ones serving to activate or entice upgrades amongst Nintendo’s 366 million customers.”
