Subsequent 12 months might be a grim one for Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft, as console gross sales are anticipated to dramatically decline in 2027 by virtually 20%. Due to part shortages, online game consoles just like the Change 2, PS5, and Xbox Collection X|S have solely gotten costlier over time–a full reversal of how programs used to get cheaper the longer they have been in the marketplace.
Based on a report from S&P World Market Intelligence Kagan (through GamesIndustry.Biz), the mathematics is straightforward: costlier machines, fewer shoppers in a position to purchase them. The agency is predicting that console shipments will fall to about 27.1 million models by 2027, however it might get well to 37.4 million models by 2030 if the part disaster begins to stabilize by 2028. This could permit Sony and Microsoft to launch their next-gen consoles–the PS6 and Undertaking Helix, respectively–and S&P World Market Intelligence analyst Neil Barbour projected that the consoles will promote for between $600 and $800 every.
“For now, the market faces a compounding drawback: {hardware} that’s both too previous or too costly for the median client, a software program slate that’s skinny exterior a handful of tentpole releases, and a macro surroundings that retains any significant worth reduction off the desk,” Barbour mentioned to GamesIndustry.Biz.
For the Change 2, S&P has forecast that it will promote 17.1 million models in 2026, whereas Nintendo’s personal expectations have gross sales pegged at 16.5 million models offered within the console’s second fiscal 12 months. That might make for a decline of 16.9% in comparison with its launch 12 months, however it’s not simply the looming $50 worth hike in September contributing to this. S&P believes that the shortage of a killer recreation for 2026 is hindering Change 2 gross sales, though the launch of Pokemon Winds and Waves in 2027 might see a spike in gross sales. Nintendo can also be rumored to be exploring an OLED model of the Change 2, however the potential worth for it’s mentioned to be a subject of concern on the firm.
As for the PS5, latest worth hikes have not helped the console enhance its latest gross sales, both. S&P’s forecast is a 15.2% lower year-on-year, with Sony possible transport 13.2 million models in 2026–a huge drop in comparison with how Sony shipped 17.1 million PS5s in 2025.
Xbox might be hardest hit, because the outlook would not look optimistic for the Microsoft gaming division. S&P says that Microsoft shipped 3.2 million Xbox Collection X|S consoles final year–a determine that Microsoft has by no means publicly revealed, because it’s notoriously cagey with gross sales numbers–and that was the bottom annual complete to this point. S&P predicts 2.5 million Xbox Collection X|S models shall be offered in 2026, adopted by “a fast wind-down towards zero” because it prepares for a next-gen console launch.
With Undertaking Helix anticipated to be costly attributable to its means to help each console and PC marketplaces, S&P has forecast launch-year gross sales of two million models, reaching roughly 7.3 million models by 2030.
Barbour added that the gross sales consequence might look totally different, and that S&P is “splitting the distinction” between a conventional Xbox console successor and a living-room PC that has been given an Xbox certification. That 2028 launch 12 months for next-gen consoles is trying extra solid–although something can change in these turbulent times–as courtroom paperwork and statements have the anticipated beginning interval of the following era of consoles penciled in for 2028.
